Epoch AI measures how fast the cost of a given level of AI performance is falling across five benchmarks covering math, science and games of skill: about 47% per quarter, or 13x per year, since 2023, faster than electricity, compute, batteries or DNA sequencing ever fell.
The plunging price of thought
Updates
Sep. 23, 2026:
We now cite Demirer, Fradkin, and Tadelis (2026), which also estimates how fast AI prices have fallen, and we added a caveat in Limitations about how the “price of thought” is a more ambiguous concept than the prices of other technologies, which complicates comparisons between them.
About the authors
Luke EmbersonLuke Emberson is a researcher on Epoch AI's data team. He focuses on tracking and forecasting model capabilities through benchmarks and the Epoch Capabilities Index, and coordinates Epoch AI's Data Insight publications.
David Roodman
David Roodman
Related topics
Economic impactCapabilities
