The NFL, with the luck taken out.
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The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Week 3, 2026
4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. Week 3: upsets and luck ranking
Falcons 35 
Packers 14 Deserved · Falcons win 92% of replays Off day for the Packers 57% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Panthers unlucky 18 
Browns lucky 21 Stolen · Browns win 9% of replays The Browns won on an off day 47% to win a fresh game, 9% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Bengals 27 
Steelers 30 Deserved · Steelers win 65% of replays 
Texans unlucky 17 
Colts lucky 19 Winner outplayed · Colts win 25% of replays 
Chiefs 24 
Dolphins 10 Deserved · Chiefs win 97% of replays 
Chargers 16 
Bills 24 Deserved · Bills win 70% of replays 
Patriots 6 
Jaguars 35 Deserved · Jaguars win 93% of replays 
Jets 24 
Lions 31 Deserved · Lions win 92% of replays 
Seahawks unlucky 31 
Commanders lucky 33 Winner outplayed · Commanders win 26% of replays 
Titans 7 
Giants 12 Deserved · Giants win 82% of replays 
Cardinals 30 
49ers 36 Deserved · 49ers win 92% of replays 
Vikings 23 
Buccaneers 16 Deserved · Vikings win 74% of replays 
Ravens 34 
Cowboys 31 Deserved · Ravens win 75% of replays 
Raiders 35 
Saints 27 Coin flip · Raiders win 47% of replays 
Rams unlucky 26 
Broncos lucky 30 Stolen · Broncos win 7% of replays The Broncos won on an off day 54% to win a fresh game, 7% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Eagles 7 
Bears 27 Deserved · Bears win 95% of replays Off day for the Eagles 51% to win a fresh game, 5% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised.
Week 2, 2026
2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. Week 2: upsets and luck ranking
Lions 31 Bills 41 Deserved · Bills win 97% of replays Panthers 34 Falcons 3 Deserved · Panthers win 94% of replays Bengals 20 Texans 6 Deserved · Bengals win 64% of replays Browns 23 Buccaneers 19 Coin flip · Browns win 59% of replays Packers lucky 20 Jets unlucky 17 Winner outplayed · Packers win 35% of replays Vikings 9 Bears 3 Coin flip · Vikings win 55% of replays Saints lucky 24 Ravens unlucky 17 Winner outplayed · Saints win 26% of replays Eagles 24 Titans 20 Deserved · Eagles win 60% of replays Steelers 3 Patriots 20 Deserved · Patriots win 90% of replays Jaguars 13 Broncos 20 Coin flip · Broncos win 59% of replays Raiders 26 Chargers 14 Deserved · Raiders win 68% of replays Dolphins 13 49ers 35 Deserved · 49ers win 99% of replays Seahawks 31 Cardinals 7 Deserved · Seahawks win 80% of replays Commanders 20 Cowboys 37 Deserved · Cowboys win 82% of replays Colts 30 Chiefs 33 Coin flip · Chiefs win 53% of replays Giants 6 Rams 28 Deserved · Rams win 94% of replays
Week 1, 2026
1 of 16 winners was outplayed on the day. Week 1: upsets and luck ranking
Patriots 10 Seahawks 13 Deserved · Seahawks win 77% of replays 49ers 27 Rams 7 Deserved · 49ers win 89% of replays Off day for the Rams 53% to win a fresh game, 11% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Falcons 13 Steelers 20 Deserved · Steelers win 88% of replays Ravens 41 Colts 23 Deserved · Ravens win 87% of replays Bills 36 Texans 31 Deserved · Bills win 87% of replays Off day for the Texans 45% to win a fresh game, 13% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. Bears 59 Panthers 37 Deserved · Bears win 87% of replays Browns 10 Jaguars 34 Deserved · Jaguars win 99% of replays Saints 30 Lions 31 Coin flip · Lions win 42% of replays Jets 23 Titans 10 Deserved · Jets win 78% of replays Buccaneers 27 Bengals 33 Deserved · Bengals win 94% of replays Off day for the Buccaneers 39% to win a fresh game, 6% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. Cardinals 26 Chargers 14 Coin flip · Cardinals win 50% of replays Packers 22 Vikings 39 Coin flip · Vikings win 46% of replays Dolphins 13 Raiders 27 Coin flip · Raiders win 43% of replays Commanders 22 Eagles 24 Coin flip · Eagles win 41% of replays Cowboys unlucky 20 Giants lucky 28 Stolen · Giants win 15% of replays Broncos 10 Chiefs 31 Deserved · Chiefs win 87% of replays
The adjusted standings, 2026
The standings with the luck taken out, if the season ended today: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled, everything else as played. Move the sliders to decide how much of each counts as luck.
How much of each is luck?
0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.
3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 100%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 50%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0% What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none
None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break, and counting some doesn’t make these standings forecast the rest of a season any better. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why
Reset to our fit Copy link to this view
Order by adjusted rank rank now Group by conference division
#### AFC
The same seven teams make the playoffs if the season ended today.
| Adjusted | Now | Team | Record | Adjusted wins | Luck | Seed |
| -------- | --- | ----------------------------------------------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ---- | ---- |
| 1\= | 1 | Chiefs | 3–0 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 1 |
| 2▲2 | 4 | Jaguars | 2–1 | 2.4 | −0.4 | 2 |
| 3\= | 3 | Bills | 3–0 | 2.3 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 4▲2 | 6 | Ravens | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.1 | 4 |
| 5▼3 | 2 | Raiders | 3–0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 5 |
| 6▼1 | 5 | Bengals | 2–1 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 6 |
| 7\= | 7 | Steelers | 2–1 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 7 |
| 8▲1 | 9 | Browns | 2–1 | 1.4 | +0.6 | |
| 9▼1 | 8 | Broncos | 2–1 | 1.3 | +0.7 | |
| 10▲3 | 13 | Texans | 0–3 | 1.3 | −1.3 | |
| 11▼1 | 10 | Jets | 1–2 | 1.2 | −0.2 | |
| 12▼1 | 11 | Patriots | 1–2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
| 13▲1 | 14 | Titans | 0–3 | 0.8 | −0.8 | |
| 14▼2 | 12 | Colts | 1–2 | 0.4 | +0.6 | |
| 15▲1 | 16 | Dolphins | 0–3 | 0.3 | −0.3 | |
| 16▼1 | 15 | Chargers | 0–3 | 0.1 | −0.1 | |
#### NFC
With the luck taken out, the Cowboys and the Buccaneers would make the playoffs if the season ended today instead of the Giants and the Panthers.
| Adjusted | Now | Team | Record | Adjusted wins | Luck | Seed |
| -------- | --- | ------------------------------------------------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ---- | ---- |
| 1\= | 1 | 49ers | 3–0 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 1 |
| 2▲1 | 3 | Bears | 2–1 | 2.7 | −0.7 | 2 |
| 3▲1 | 4 | Seahawks | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.1 | 5 |
| 4▲4 | 8 | Cowboys | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.0 | 3 |
| 5\= | 5 | Lions | 2–1 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 6 |
| 6▲10 | 16 | Buccaneers | 0–3 | 1.5 | −1.5 | 4 |
| 7▼5 | 2 | Vikings | 3–0 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 7 |
| 8▲1 | 9 | Panthers | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.4 | out |
| 9▲1 | 10 | Saints | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.4 | |
| 10▲1 | 11 | Rams | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.3 | |
| 11▲1 | 12 | Commanders | 1–2 | 1.2 | −0.2 | |
| 12▼6 | 6 | Giants | 2–1 | 1.2 | +0.8 | out |
| 13▼6 | 7 | Eagles | 2–1 | 1.1 | +0.9 | |
| 14\= | 14 | Cardinals | 1–2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
| 15\= | 15 | Packers | 1–2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
| 16▼3 | 13 | Falcons | 1–2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
Adjusted wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled at your settings, everything else as played. Seed: playoff seed in the adjusted standings; 5 in only in the adjusted standings (luck kept them out), out is in by record only thanks to luck. Adjusted: rank in the conference by adjusted wins, ▲ places up because luck cost them, ▼ down because luck helped. Now: rank by record.
Luckiest so far
1. Raiders3–0+1.4 wins
2. Browns2–1+1.3 wins
3. Vikings3–0+1.3 wins
4. Broncos2–1+1.2 wins
5. Giants2–1+1.0 wins
Unluckiest so far
1. Texans0–3−1.2 wins
2. Chargers0–3−1.1 wins
3. Panthers1–2−1.0 wins
4. Rams1–2−1.0 wins
5. Cowboys1–2−0.9 wins
All 32 teams, after Week 3 · Power rankings: who is best with the luck taken out
The biggest heists of 2026 so far
Wins the replay says the winner should almost never have had. The biggest since 2019
1. Broncos 30, Rams 26 · Week 3 · the Broncos win 7% of replays 2. Browns 21, Panthers 18 · Week 3 · the Browns win 9% of replays 3. Giants 28, Cowboys 20 · Week 1 · the Giants win 15% of replays 4. Colts 19, Texans 17 · Week 3 · the Colts win 25% of replays 5. Saints 24, Ravens 17 · Week 2 · the Saints win 26% of replays
How it works
Every play of every game goes back into the pot. Each team’s own plays from that game are drawn at random, by down and distance, into new drives and a new game, 4,000 times. Kicks, fumble bounces and turnovers happen at the rates you would expect, not the ones that happened. How often a team wins those replays is what its performance was worth that day.
The difference between that and the result is luck. A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90 on our luck index. Kicks, fumbles, drops, conversions and referee calls are valued one by one, against each kicker’s and receiver’s own record, so you can see where it came from.
The replay predicts real rematches about as well as the betting line does. It does not predict who covers next week: the market already knows. Methodology and validation