The NFL, adjusted for luck.
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The bar on each card shows how often the loser wins the replays. Fuller bar, more luck. An outline means the winner was behind in the replays.
Week 4, 2026
15 of 16 games scored so far (new games appear the morning after they’re played). 1 of 15 winners was behind in the replays. Week 4: upsets and luck ranking
Steelers 24 
Browns 27 Coin flip · Browns win 41% of replays 
Colts lucky 30 
Commanders unlucky 13 Replays favor loser · Colts win 35% of replays 
Cardinals 24 
Giants 36 Coin flip · Giants win 43% of replays 
Cowboys 34 
Texans 30 Replays agree · Cowboys win 61% of replays 
Packers 17 
Buccaneers 14 Replays agree · Packers win 76% of replays 
Jaguars 22 
Bengals 17 Coin flip · Jaguars win 59% of replays 
Rams 24 
Eagles 20 Replays agree · Rams win 98% of replays Off day for the Eagles 38% to win a fresh game, 2% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Patriots 29 
Bills 26 Coin flip · Patriots win 51% of replays 
Jets 12 
Bears 23 Replays agree · Bears win 90% of replays 
Titans 18 
Ravens 24 Replays agree · Ravens win 94% of replays 
Dolphins 10 
Vikings 15 Replays agree · Vikings win 65% of replays 
Broncos 14 
49ers 24 Replays agree · 49ers win 97% of replays Off day for the Broncos 39% to win a fresh game, 3% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Chiefs 30 
Raiders 27 Coin flip · Chiefs win 54% of replays 
Chargers 23 
Seahawks 30 Replays agree · Seahawks win 78% of replays 
Lions 26 
Panthers 32 Replays agree · Panthers win 66% of replays
Week 3, 2026
4 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. Week 3: upsets and luck ranking
Falcons 35 Packers 14 Replays agree · Falcons win 92% of replays Off day for the Packers 57% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Panthers unlucky 18 Browns lucky 21 Long shot · Browns win 9% of replays The Browns won on an off day 47% to win a fresh game, 9% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. Bengals 27 Steelers 30 Replays agree · Steelers win 65% of replays Texans unlucky 17 Colts lucky 19 Replays favor loser · Colts win 25% of replays Chiefs 24 Dolphins 10 Replays agree · Chiefs win 97% of replays Chargers 16 Bills 24 Replays agree · Bills win 70% of replays Patriots 6 Jaguars 35 Replays agree · Jaguars win 93% of replays Jets 24 Lions 31 Replays agree · Lions win 92% of replays Seahawks unlucky 31 Commanders lucky 33 Replays favor loser · Commanders win 26% of replays Titans 7 Giants 12 Replays agree · Giants win 82% of replays Cardinals 30 49ers 36 Replays agree · 49ers win 92% of replays Vikings 23 Buccaneers 16 Replays agree · Vikings win 74% of replays Ravens 34 Cowboys 31 Replays agree · Ravens win 75% of replays Raiders 35 
Saints 27 Coin flip · Raiders win 47% of replays Rams unlucky 26 Broncos lucky 30 Long shot · Broncos win 7% of replays The Broncos won on an off day 54% to win a fresh game, 7% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. Eagles 7 Bears 27 Replays agree · Bears win 95% of replays Off day for the Eagles 51% to win a fresh game, 5% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised.
Week 2, 2026
2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. Week 2: upsets and luck ranking
Lions 31 Bills 41 Replays agree · Bills win 97% of replays Panthers 34 Falcons 3 Replays agree · Panthers win 94% of replays Bengals 20 Texans 6 Replays agree · Bengals win 64% of replays Browns 23 Buccaneers 19 Replays agree · Browns win 60% of replays Packers lucky 20 Jets unlucky 17 Replays favor loser · Packers win 35% of replays Vikings 9 Bears 3 Coin flip · Vikings win 55% of replays Saints lucky 24 Ravens unlucky 17 Replays favor loser · Saints win 26% of replays Eagles 24 Titans 20 Coin flip · Eagles win 60% of replays Steelers 3 Patriots 20 Replays agree · Patriots win 90% of replays Jaguars 13 Broncos 20 Coin flip · Broncos win 59% of replays Raiders 26 Chargers 14 Replays agree · Raiders win 68% of replays Dolphins 13 49ers 35 Replays agree · 49ers win 99% of replays Seahawks 31 Cardinals 7 Replays agree · Seahawks win 80% of replays Commanders 20 Cowboys 37 Replays agree · Cowboys win 82% of replays Colts 30 Chiefs 33 Coin flip · Chiefs win 53% of replays Giants 6 Rams 28 Replays agree · Rams win 94% of replays
Week 1, 2026
1 of 16 winners was behind in the replays. Week 1: upsets and luck ranking
Patriots 10 Seahawks 13 Replays agree · Seahawks win 77% of replays 49ers 27 Rams 7 Replays agree · 49ers win 89% of replays Off day for the Rams 53% to win a fresh game, 11% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Falcons 13 Steelers 20 Replays agree · Steelers win 88% of replays Ravens 41 Colts 23 Replays agree · Ravens win 87% of replays Bills 36 Texans 31 Replays agree · Bills win 87% of replays Off day for the Texans 45% to win a fresh game, 13% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. Bears 59 Panthers 37 Replays agree · Bears win 87% of replays Browns 10 Jaguars 34 Replays agree · Jaguars win 99% of replays Saints 30 Lions 31 Coin flip · Lions win 42% of replays Jets 23 Titans 10 Replays agree · Jets win 78% of replays Buccaneers 27 Bengals 33 Replays agree · Bengals win 94% of replays Off day for the Buccaneers 39% to win a fresh game, 6% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. Cardinals 26 Chargers 14 Coin flip · Cardinals win 50% of replays Packers 22 Vikings 39 Coin flip · Vikings win 46% of replays Dolphins 13 Raiders 27 Coin flip · Raiders win 43% of replays Commanders 22 Eagles 24 Coin flip · Eagles win 41% of replays Cowboys unlucky 20 Giants lucky 28 Long shot · Giants win 15% of replays Broncos 10 Chiefs 31 Replays agree · Chiefs win 87% of replays
The adjusted standings, 2026
The standings adjusted for luck, if the season ended today. We re-roll every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and ref call, and keep everything else as played. Think we count too much as luck, or too little? Move the sliders.
How much of each is luck?
0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.
3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 100%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 50%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0% What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none
None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break, and counting some doesn’t make these standings forecast the rest of a season any better. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why
Reset to our fit Copy link to this view
Order by adjusted rank rank now Group by conference division
#### AFC
Adjusted for luck, the Steelers would make the playoffs if the season ended today instead of the Browns.
| Adjusted | Now | Team | Record | Adjusted wins | Luck | Seed |
| -------- | --- | ----------------------------------------------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ---- | ---- |
| 1\= | 1 | Chiefs | 4–0 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 1 |
| 2\= | 2 | Jaguars | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 2 |
| 3▲1 | 4 | Ravens | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 3 |
| 4▲1 | 5 | Bills | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 4 |
| 5▼2 | 3 | Raiders | 3–1 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 5 |
| 6▲3 | 9 | Steelers | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | 6 |
| 7\= | 7 | Bengals | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 7 |
| 8▼2 | 6 | Browns | 3–1 | 1.8 | +1.2 | out |
| 9▲1 | 10 | Patriots | 2–2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | |
| 10▲3 | 13 | Texans | 0–4 | 1.5 | −1.5 | |
| 11▲1 | 12 | Jets | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.4 | |
| 12▼4 | 8 | Colts | 2–2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | |
| 13▼2 | 11 | Broncos | 2–2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | |
| 14▲2 | 16 | Dolphins | 0–4 | 0.9 | −0.9 | |
| 15▼1 | 14 | Titans | 0–4 | 0.8 | −0.8 | |
| 16▼1 | 15 | Chargers | 0–4 | 0.3 | −0.3 | |
#### NFC
Adjusted for luck, the Rams would make the playoffs if the season ended today instead of the Vikings.
| Adjusted | Now | Team | Record | Adjusted wins | Luck | Seed |
| -------- | --- | ------------------------------------------------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ---- | ---- |
| 1\= | 1 | 49ers | 4–0 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 1 |
| 2▲1 | 3 | Bears | 3–1 | 3.5 | −0.5 | 2 |
| 3▲1 | 4 | Seahawks | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 5 |
| 4▲3 | 7 | Cowboys | 2–2 | 2.8 | −0.8 | 3 |
| 5▲1 | 6 | Panthers | 2–2 | 2.4 | −0.4 | 4 |
| 6▲2 | 8 | Rams | 2–2 | 2.2 | −0.2 | 6 |
| 7▼2 | 5 | Giants | 3–1 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 7 |
| 8▲3 | 11 | Packers | 2–2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | |
| 9▼7 | 2 | Vikings | 4–0 | 1.9 | +2.1 | out |
| 10▼1 | 9 | Lions | 2–2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | |
| 11▲5 | 16 | Buccaneers | 0–4 | 1.6 | −1.6 | |
| 12\= | 12 | Saints | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.4 | |
| 13▲2 | 15 | Commanders | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.3 | |
| 14▼4 | 10 | Eagles | 2–2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | |
| 15▼1 | 14 | Cardinals | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.1 | |
| 16▼3 | 13 | Falcons | 1–2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
Adjusted wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled at your settings, everything else as played. Seed: playoff seed in the adjusted standings; 5 in only in the adjusted standings (luck kept them out), out is in by record only thanks to luck. Adjusted: rank in the conference by adjusted wins, ▲ places up because luck cost them, ▼ down because luck helped. Now: rank by record.
Luckiest so far
1. Browns3–1+1.9 wins
2. Vikings4–0+1.6 wins
3. Giants3–1+1.5 wins
4. Broncos2–2+1.2 wins
5. Chiefs4–0+1.1 wins
Unluckiest so far
1. Texans0–4−1.6 wins
2. Chargers0–4−1.3 wins
3. Rams2–2−1.0 wins
4. Dolphins0–4−1.0 wins
5. Buccaneers0–4−1.0 wins
All 32 teams, after Week 4 · Power rankings: who is best, adjusted for luck
The biggest heists of 2026 so far
Games the winner almost never wins in the replays. The biggest since 2019
1. Broncos 30, Rams 26 · Week 3 · the Broncos win 7% of replays 2. Browns 21, Panthers 18 · Week 3 · the Browns win 9% of replays 3. Giants 28, Cowboys 20 · Week 1 · the Giants win 15% of replays 4. Colts 19, Texans 17 · Week 3 · the Colts win 25% of replays 5. Saints 24, Ravens 17 · Week 2 · the Saints win 26% of replays
How it works
Here’s the idea. We take every snap each team ran in a game and deal them out again into new drives, matched by down and distance. Then we play the game over. And over. 4,000 times. Kicks, fumble bounces and turnovers happen at their normal rates, not the way they happened that day.
How often a team wins those replays is roughly what its play was worth. The gap between that and the result is what we call luck. Lose a game you’d win 9 times out of 10 in the replays, and that’s −90 on our luck index. We also go play by play, with each kicker and receiver measured against his own record, so you can see where the luck came from.
Does it predict anything? Rematches, about as well as the betting line. Who covers next week? No. The market’s already on that. Methodology and every test
Common objections
Do you rate players?
No. The replays reuse the plays both teams actually ran in that game, matched by down and distance. So if the pass rush ate that quarterback alive, that’s already in the plays. The only things we reset are the coin flips, using rates from every game since 2019. Who falls on a fumble (the team that fumbled keeps it 52% of the time). Whether a kick from that distance goes in. Whether a defender holds on to a pass he should have picked.
A 62% kick went in. Why is that luck?
Mostly, it isn’t. A make on a 62% kick counts as +0.38 over what you’d expect. A miss would have been −0.62. A kicker who hits exactly his share comes out at zero over a season. And the verdict on a game comes from replaying the whole game, not from any one kick.
Isn’t recovering a fumble a skill?
Forcing fumbles and holding on to the ball? Sure, and the replays keep both as they happened. Who ends up on the loose ball is a different story. A team’s recovery rate one year predicts the next at a correlation of 0.09 (192 team-seasons). A coin would give you zero. Turnover luck by team
Doesn’t the game situation matter?
It does, and we only handle part of it. Plays are matched by down and distance, so a 3rd-and-20 only draws from that team’s long 3rd downs. Teams that are behind late go for it on 4th down. But field position, the score and the clock don’t change which plays get drawn. That’s a real gap. It still holds up, though: replaying the first game of a division series picks the rematch winner as well as the closing betting line (log loss 0.666 vs 0.668, 336 rematches).
A receiver who drops a lot isn’t unlucky. He’s just bad.
Agreed. That’s why each drop is measured against that receiver’s own drop rate. A guy who drops a lot is expected to drop more, so he doesn’t get much “bad luck” for it. Kickers get the same treatment (their own record from that distance), and so do defenses (how often they actually catch the passes they should pick).
Does any of this predict anything?
We check it against what happened next. Teams the replays gave a 50%–75% chance won 61% of the time (we said 63%). And records adjusted for luck pick the winners of a team’s next games better than its actual record does. How we test it, with every number